Borys Kushniruk

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If two months ago I wrote about the tasks facing Ukraine in connection with a possible signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union, now I’ll have to write about something absolutely different.

Now Ukraine is on the verge of a civil war and disintegration.  And although the first steps, made on January 28 by the power and the opposition, reduce the possibility of the worst scenario of the succession of events a little bit, but all the risks remain there.  In this context it is necessary to understand that the armed conflict and disintegration of Ukraine may be much more dangerous, than the conflict on Balkans.

Ukraine is an industrial state, with powerful technogenically dangerous objects, such as chemical productions, nuclear power plants, two of which are located in the Western Ukraine, near the EU countries.

Besides, Ukraine has got the gas transport system which is second most powerful in Europe.  And in addition, the greatest gas storages in Europe are located on the western border of Ukraine, and they are important for stable gas supply of the European countries.

Besides, taking into account the highest transit status in Europe, several important transit corridors pass through the territory of Ukraine.

Therefore, in case one of the parties of the confrontation attempts to solve the sharpest political conflict in all modern history of Ukraine by means of force, all this can lead to the worst scenario. This will inevitably cause serious problems for the neighboring European countries, beginning from the flow of refugees and finishing with technogenic catastrophes.